Elections 2009: India – An Amazing democracy!
Leading up to the elections, I had put together a set of predictions – some from political pundits and some mine. Many were wrong! Lets talk about what where our guesses went right and wrong.
1. No Party or Coalition will get a majority in Parliament - Right
2. UPA (the present Cong led) Government will not get a majority - Right
3. UPA will decline in numbers and NDA will increase its numbers vis a vis 2004. – Very wrong
4. UPA constituents like RJD, Samajwadi Party and DMK are all expected to lose seats and decline significantly from their 2004 position in Parliament. – Right for RJD, SP and wrong about DMK
5. Left is going to lose significantly vis a vis their 2004 position as well. - Right
6. The performances of the two National parties BJP and Congress are currently unclear. Consensus currently is that BJP will improve its 2004 position and Congress fate will be decided its performance in key states like Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh. – Wrong about the BJP and Congress performance in AP, Rajasthan, UP did put Cong on top
7. There will be winners and losers in this election. Winners will significantly improve their position and losers will significantly decline - The winners in this election will be JD(U) (Nitish Kumar), AIADMK (Jayalalitha), TDP (Naidu), PRP (Chiranjeevi) – The Big losers will be RJD ,SP, DMK and the Left. – Right about all except TDP, PRP and DMK fates. BJP is another loser.
8. The political dynamics of UP will be rewritten – where for the first time after many many years, the hold of the SP and BSP will be broken and the two National parties BJP and INC may win the majority of the seats in UP! – Wrong
9. The fate of YSR (Y Rajshekar Reddy) CM Andhra Pradesh and Naveen Patnaik , CM Orissa will be decided during these elections. Congress will lose the state elections in Andhra Pradesh and Chiranjeevi will play an important role in government formation in AP. – Wrong- Cong gets clear majority in AP.
10. BJD (Naveen Patnaik) may not win a majority in Orissa and may be faced with needing support from either Congress or BJP to form a government. The situation here will decide the BJDs position vis a vis supporting UPA or NDA in the center.– Wrong- BJD gets clear majority in Orissa.
11. Since the wheeling and dealing will depend a lot on which party is invited to form the government by the President, we can expect considerable to-ing and fro-ing and use/mis-use of Presidential discretion on whether the Single largest Party should be invited to form a government or the largest pre-poll Alliance! (This assumes that the two will be different political formations!) – Completely wrong. Cong is single largest party by far. No ambiguity here.!
12. So who will be Prime Minister? That question has many possible answers currently…stay tuned and good luck to all of us ! – Answer is clear – Manmohan Singh!
There will be many theories and analysis on the performance of the losers in this election, especially about the shocking performance of BJP and the strong performance of the Congress in many parts of India! More than anything, it’s clear that the people of India have voted clearly and thoughtfully and put paid to various theories of a hung and confused mandate. The biggest good news is that this mandate is clearly a far more solid and stable one that the 2004 one. The Congress party requires less coalition partners. This puts the pressure on the Government to deliver without the recourse to excuses of coalition partners which was the excuse of choice for the previous government!
This marks the last of my election blogs. Thanks to all for participating and sharing your views. My next set of blogs will focus on Governance and Government Performance!
21 Responses to “Elections 2009: India – An Amazing democracy!”
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vipul grover on May 16th, 2009
Well once again as in 2004, the ‘predictions’ could not gauge the mind of the Indian Voter. I voted for BJP but still happy with the results for one, the opportunist regional and left parties have been relegated to the corner and second, a national party has gained considerably. With stability, strength will come naturally and that’s what India require at this hour.
Vinay on May 16th, 2009
Aaah! The perils of trying to predict the Indian democracy have been experience by many, especially since the 2004 elections.
But you have done a superb job of presenting the surprises that the Indian electorate can throw. Fortunately, the new government will not be dependent on the Left Front. Hope that reforms are pushed in a big way!
BG Mahesh on May 17th, 2009
The sad part is that every major TV channel has started saying “I told you so” “Our exit poll predictions were the closest to results”. All lies.
It is better to accept which of the predictions went right and wrong (like this post) and move on.
This election was a good one and the voter showed a lot of maturity in voting - they voted for “one” party.
Time for stock markets to go up
BG Mahesh
TJ on May 18th, 2009
CLUELESS
The fact is that all political, pundits, all psephologists (those who conduct exit polls and make predictions), the print and visual media, the political parties themselves are proved wrong. Yet no one has stood up, raised their hand and said “I/we WAS/were WRONG”……completely and utterly, on the upside and/or downside. Shobha De wrote in her column “Gyaan givers should now go into hiding and hang up their brains” MJ Akbar wrote, “India is not a secular country because Indian Muslims want it to be secular but because Indian Hindus want it to be secular”……Touché.
The so called “weak” Prime Minister becomes the first PM since 1957 to be returned as PM after a full 5 year term. The so called “strong” PM candidate goes into hiding and possibly retirement…..
At the end of the day “Bharat is shining, Congress is smiling and the Left is whining”. Communism is dead but alas the communists are not.
I am making a prediction. The next five years will take India onto a different plane altogether and put us firmly on a path of economic growth, development and prosperity the likes of which we have never been seen before…… If this prediction goes wrong then it will be back to the days of khichdi formations and slow grinding, Hindu rate of growth and development. That will be a monumental tragedy.
Sandeep Unnithan on May 18th, 2009
I think most of your predictions were spot on. As for the rest, i don’t think even the Congress leave alone the media and psephologists believed they would cross 200.
ajay jetti on May 18th, 2009
yes , so true, once again the exit polls failed.
I cant say it is good or bad, onething though, its good that one party is going to have biggest say
Ajay Jetti
http://ajayjetti.com
Som on May 18th, 2009
The verdict is not an endorsement that there was nothing wrong with the performance of the UPA government. It is in fact an endorsement that the architecture of Version.1 of the UPA government was flawed, and that the primary opposition effort was unattractive.
One can only hope that the euphoria and sycophancy attendant with such electoral triumph does not blind the Singh government into believing its own electoral sales pitch. There is a lot to be said about the poor performance of the UPA government – indeed, hamstrung as it was, by the necessary consequences of cobbling together with ideologically disjointed partners.
Partners with disjointed ideology gave way to partners with no ideology last August. However, not much was achieved since the sole ideology of staying in power does not give strategic directional thrust. Even the Congress Party did not expect such a result – an individual score of over 200 seats in Parliament, with only two other pre-poll alliance partners reaching double-digits and that too with less than 20 seats each.
The task before the new government is enormous. Governance indeed is in disarray. There is little or no feeling of responsibility and ownership towards institutions of governance. However, such apathy is not uniform. Government has indeed shown interest in state institutions provided a political agenda has provided the motivation.
The government has been smug about the Indian economy attracting investments regardless of the state of law and policy here. Post-poll, the temptation to be smug in claiming voters’ endorsement will be high. However, such attitude would be unbecoming. Razeen Sally of the London School of Economics wrote a critique of the past five years’ performance in the Far Eastern Economic Review. The patriotic pride of many an Indian was hurt. Perhaps embarrassed by the poll results, Wall Street Journal seems to have quietly taken the piece off its website and it can only be read on: http://www.ecipe.org/dont-believe-the-india-hype/File. The piece underlines how decadent our institutions are becoming. Brushing it off as a foreigner’s anti-India bias will only leave us imagining India to be a perfect place.
JK on May 18th, 2009
Hi Rajeev,
I visited your blog to say that many of your predictions were wrong. Happy to see that you have done a self evaluation. Would be good, if politicians do a similar self evaluation frequently.
I know that you will be disappointed by the results. Being a congress sympathizer and a fan of Mr. Manmohan (I have given some reasons in my previous comment on why PM is not interested in a debate with Mr.Advani), I am more than happy about the results. The good news is that, this govt. carries no deadweight (Left routed). This is a historic opportunity to carry out reforms and to take the fruits of reforms to the mass.
Before your blog on governance,I would like to see your view on why people voted the way they did. I would like you to write about the change that can be expected in Indian politics. With hardliners like Mr. Advani (plus Modi) and Mr.Karat, unable to cut ice with the voters, do you see a change in the ideology of the parties.
Do you expect the right wing parties (particularly BJP) and left parties (particularly CPM) to move closer to the center. With Rahul gaining upper hand, do you expect the congress become a left of center party. Are moving moving to an era where there is a consensus on economic and social issues.
Regards,
Jayakumar S
Abraham on May 18th, 2009
Sorry, I mistook your predictions as your wish list….
glad to know that everyone is happy with the verdict…
Chris on May 18th, 2009
Rajeev, appreciate that you have had the grace and courage to revisit your predictions and come out categorically with what was right and what was wrong.
As far as Dr Manmohan Singh is concerned, he did not have the courage to contest the Lok Sabha election and win it so that he can be a PM in his own right, rather than as a servant of the Ghandy family. His so called second term is not a proper term for this reason. We Indians have the faith that moves mountains and are perennial hopefuls. On past record, there is nothing to suggest that the venal, unprincipled, dishonest and corrupt governance of the Congress and its allies will change but we still keep hoping that there will be some change for the better.
Anonymous on May 18th, 2009
BJP losing so badly across various parts of country clearly indicates that people of India were either not satisfied with the leaders of BJP or the political agenda’s .
BJP should rethink there strategy to come out as clean party with clean agenda’s, and for God’s sake it should not include God again.
Anyhow congrats to COngress and hope they give India good reasons to cheer up.
K.Sivasankaram on May 18th, 2009
Both visual and print media hyped their own imaginations beyond comprehension of sensible people. The media had christianed Mayavati and Rahul Gandhi as Indian Obamas. Mayavathi and Jayalalitha were made to believe that the PM chair is meant for them.
The sample size and quality for the exit poll seem to be totally unrepresentative of reality.
Allowance is to be given to PRP eating in to the TDP votes for the unexpected victory of Congress in Andhra and consequential gain for INC at the center.
Keerikkadan on May 19th, 2009
Anyway its a relief that congress came to power. Now India will be a safe haven for investors. The country will be in the development path. If the whole india was skeptic about the communists, why do we need a party like that. We need to throw them out!!
Bsk777 on May 19th, 2009
Dear Rajeev,
Kudos to both your predictions and your list of rights and wrongs! What fun, considering almost all of us had about the same chance of getting our predictions right or wrong. What the results have done for me is take me away from the cynic I had become of late, wondering if our country is collectively capable of progressive thinking.
The results though, should surprise nobody, if they have been in touch with the much touted “Common Man” of India. The Indian Common Man has evolved, but his politicians think he is still in the stone age.
We Indians are busy developing - our lives, our standards, our health, our communities and our country. All we want is a government that doesn’t stand in the way. Manmohan Singh doesn’t have to be a revolutionary star to do this. Because we don’t want a revolution! We want to move ahead quietly and with dignity.
The BJP and its cohorts always hammered upon us how bad things were and how much better things would be with that blessed Ram Temple they had in mind. Oh, God! Not one more issue! Please! We Indians don’t need anxiety, disruptions, revolutions, tension, and that sort of thing on a daily basis. We don’t need any Ram Rajya or a Talibanisation of our Hindu value system. Truth is, we don’t need any of this on a monthly, yearly, or any basis. We just don’t want to switch on the TV and be hit with ONE MORE ISSUE.
The Congress (oh, well, the UPA) offers us the most benign, quiet, dignified promise of tomorrow. Not much to worry about. Manmohan Singh, at the end of the day, is a good man. He’s not anxious like L.K. Advani. He has his stuff together. Rahul Gandhi isn’t a maverick either, but we don’t want him to be! He’s calm enough, comes across as being well meaning, and is definitely not going to make me challenge the whole “dynastic rule” theory if he wants to be the Prime Minister at some point.
If one dynasty wants the toughest job on the planet, of running India, who can envy them?! After all, every one of them wins elections, don’t they? Last time I checked, Ram was a king, and Advani doesn’t mind wearing crowns in public. OUT!
The Left, well, are simply outdated. Prakash Karat is outdated. Apparently they are having some sort of meeting to discuss and analyze their debacle at the polls. Their ideas are the debacle. What’s there to discuss? Like every other “front” with ugly faces, uglier arguments and outdated notions, I suppose they’re entitled to their illusions.
We, Indians, in the meantime, are entitled to our progress, our peace, and our aspirations, and all we want is to be enabled, empowered, and most importantly, left alone to do our thing. Just keep us informed, Mr. Prime Minister. You’re doing fine.
Niegil on May 19th, 2009
Hi Rajeev,
I never believed in your predictions, because most of them, clearly was pointing to be your wish list and not predictions. I am sure that your inner conscious knew that many were wrong before it was posted in the blog. To be frank I felt it as an election stud.
And I never expected this from you
Regards,
Niegil Thomas
Ajit on May 19th, 2009
No matter whether congress wins or BJP, it is good avoid dominance of smaller parties for a stable government. Anywayz I wanted BJP leaders to rule this time…. Because congress confuses me about who is the actual leader (Sonia or someone else)
Ajit on May 19th, 2009
Well it is really good to see left parties went down… for a better future of India
Rajeev on May 19th, 2009
my predictions werent an election ’stud’
i was quite open about who i had endorsed so there was really no question of these predictions being anything but predictions…i was right about many predictions and wrong about some..i didnt predict the prime minister and hence the government because i wasnt sure.. ! good luck !
Rishikesh on May 29th, 2009
Congrats on the self analysis. This is something very few have. It shows your ‘openess’ - which I think is the most valuable characteristic required in a human in contrast to those who think ‘they know it all’ (which unfortunately is the characteristics of many who have chosen a political career). Your posts on governance are intersting…keep them coming. Best wishes from a Bangalorean.
meeta on July 4th, 2009
read your post and even though i partially only folowed the indian elections, but i did as thoroughly as i could…meaning also that i read through a lot o’ speculations about king makers and kingdom crashers…loads o’ personal opinions, exit polls n specialist’s analyses (hazards o’ being a concious voter while simultaneously being living in india)…….y did we get d poll results we got???????…..wasn’ surprising 2 me..reasons????
…not at all dificult to reach at if v start by attempting to gauge at d psyche o’ d common indian citizen..or d beechara aam admi ( who’s nt beechara nymore..he displayed it to our netaji’s dis tym)…………….the aam admi to whichever social strata he belongs has started lookin at d quality o’ lyf aspect o’ living…he’s through now with mere promises and sentiment arousing cries ( be they abt caste, religion, region or language..we hav e.g. ryt before us…as mulayam, maya, jaya, lalu..none were spared?)…he expects the promises to be delivered, as now he can realise that his quality o’ lyf suffers ‘cuz o’ non-deliverence ( we may attribute dis awarness 2 increase in our literacy levels).
also he realized that people who can deliver are people who can standup for their integrity ( not those who turn a different shade o’ colour with every news channel they turn on)..nd also not those who believe in the policy o’ blackmailing ( we saw all tat in previous UPA stint)..
n thus d only alternative he was left with ( nd in sum cases the best amongst worst, but still)…was the one he choose nd lead to a downpour on all our exit polls nd election pundits.
moral o’ s story——- there is no short cut to parliament except thru the minds o’ aam admi ( plz note nt his heart nymore)….nd that roads means ” LET YOUR WORK SPEAK”